The Tale of the Purple Water Fountain

Located deep in the bowels of the Pentagon, lies the legendary "Purple Water Fountain."

Verizon Wireless Treo 650?

A Verizon Wireless store sales rep in Arlington, VA, informed me today that Vzw had given them "May 23rd" as the day for the Treo 650 release. He wasn't 100% confident that it would really happen, but he said they had been told that date.... We'll see.

Podcast Satellite Radio

Adam Curry, former MTV VJ and podcasting guru, announced on his 2 May Daily Source Code. that he would soon be hosting a podcasting show on Sirius Satellite Radio. Curry said the show would include podcasting content -- which probably means both "promos" and actual podcast "shows." A New York Times story from 2 May says it will be a 4-hour daily show and will start 13 May. Curry's show about podcasting will be on one of Sirius's channels with commercials. Sirius joins Infinity Broadcasting as the second media company to announce a the incorporation of the podcasting format into its programming. Mr. Curry seems to be in a position to call the shots when it comes to podcasting. I think the NYTimes called him the "podfather"... Ugh!

I'm not sure whether these forays amount to evidence of the decline of radio, or the "corruption" of the emerging podcasting movement. Podcasting might just gobble up radio.

EMP Threat to National Security

Recently the threat of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) nuclear attack on the U.S. has been getting considerable attention -- especially for a "non-traditional" threat. Typically discussions of nuclear attacks focus on the surreptitious introduction of a nuclear weapon -- or crude radiological weapons (aka "dirty bomb") -- into the United States. Talking about EMP was quite out of favor -- the sort of thing that old "Cold Warriors" talked about while lamenting the glory days of a "worthy" Soviet adversary. But this seems to be changing.

On April 26, Investor's Business Daily ran an editorial titled "Shock and Awe" about the danger to the US of an EMP-causing nuclear attack. (I discovered this article on Factiva, and, sadly, cannot link to it.) The attack would come from a nuclear armed missile fired from a small ship in the waters off the US coast. IBD doesn't mince words: they say it would be the end of our economy.

Nobody is harmed or killed immediately by the blast. But life in the U.S., the world's only superpower and its largest economy, comes to a screeching halt as a country dependent on cutting-edge 21st century technology regresses in time almost a century instantaneously.

IBD goes on to line up the potential adversaries that are testing or have missile technology that could enable such an attack: China's ballistic missile-carrying sub, North Korea's nuclear and missile technology, and recent Iranian tests of missiles intended to detonate in mid-air.

Iran has surprised intelligence analysts by describing the midflight detonations of missiles fired from ships on the Caspian Sea as "successful." Imagine one of those missiles carrying an Iranian nuke being fired from a ship in international waters off the American coast, detonating high over an Iowa cornfield.

If that's not scary enough, IBD says al Qaida could do the same thing with some merchant ships and a $100,000 black market SCUD. A little googling turned up this WSJ article titled "The Mother of All Blackouts," posted on Free Republic. This article sounds like the source of the IBD piece. Both lament that the EMP threat gets little attention compared with the 9-11 Commission's report. Apparently the Commission to Assess the Threat to the U.S. from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack made its report the same week as the 9-11 Commission. Now what kind of coincidence is that?

Another article on 2 May, quotes former CIA director James Woosley sounding the alarm about the EMP threat. Joseph Fara on WorldNetDaily (thanks Howard) writes about the testimony Woosley's testimony to the House International Terrorism and Non-Proliferation Subcommittee focused on the threat posed by Iran and the need for action on hardening the US electrical grid. The timing of this story is interesting.

Could all this be scare mongering? Could al Qaida really knock out much of the nation with a nuclear-tipped SCUD? Well, that depends. Lets just take a simple look at the physics. Nuclear detonations produce gamma radiation -- lots of it. Gamma rays ionize atmospheric molecules (called the Compton Effect) which causes a powerful electomagnetic field. This field can cause electrical voltage in any conductive materials -- wiring, generators, electronics -- pretty much anything that would conduct electricity. The EMP causes rapid onset of voltage, like an electrical spike in the equipment, thus damaging the electronics. The strength of the EMP is mainly a function of altitude. Altitude also increases the surface area that's within line of sight. So, the higher the altitude of the blast, the greater area of ground coverage. (See the Army publication Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) And TEMPEST Protection For Facilities for more information.) The worst thing about EMP is that the damage is likely to be permanent and widespread. The equipment or components must be replaced -- and systems necessary to effect repairs (like telephones, power grid, trucks) will be out of commission too.

A $100,000 SCUD B rocket reaches a max altitude of about 160 km (496,000 ft), with a similar range. Clearly it won't reach Kansas from the ocean, but you could certainly reach much of the coastal areas. But that altitude results in a 1,200 km line-of-sight radius (see para 2-2b). That would cover a vast area. The entire west coast of the US, from Seattle to San Deigo would fit inside a circle of 2,400 km diameter. So, aside from the difficulties of obtaining a nuclear weapon, mounting it on a SCUD and launching it from a ship, the physics seems to support such a threat.

A good offense is often a good defense, but offensive programs don't seem to solve this problem. Aside from a questionably effective missile defense program, its difficult to see what defense programs might help protect against this kind of threat.

What's Up With CNet?

CNet must hate Apple. Earlier today, I got their "On the Go Weekly" email. In it, Molly Wood writes an opinion piece called "The iPod Shuffle: I don't get it." Basically it slams the iPod Shuffle and questions the sanity of anyone who would buy one -- or even dares to think its cool.

Every time I visit their home page I see some headline about the next Apple killer, or how the latest new product is better than [insert Apple product]. Today I was treated to two:

• You have to do more than look like an iPod to beat the Mac Mini -- Can Shuttle [XPC] do it?
• MP3 Players for Rhapsody 3.0 -- These six players can't wait to load up millions of songs from Real's iTunes killer.

Note to CNet: Get over yourself!

Again, Podcast Radio

The more I think about this the more ticked off this whole concept makes me. Over on Evil Genius Chronicles, Dave Slusher wonders, too, whether the public will be paid for their podcasts.

"The thing I have not noticed is any statement about how or whether they are paying the podcast producers. My guess is not. So, they are taking citizen media they get for free, airing it on an obscure AM station and getting paid for it."

He goes on to recommend podcasters avoid the whole scheme unless they get some compensation. Right on! These people at Infinity Broadcasting must be way out of touch. Stay tuned!

More on Podcast Radio

Yesterday, BusinessWeek's blog (www.blogspotting.com) included a post about Infinity's podcast radio format. They describe traditional radio as "under siege" from the tide of podcasting. Please...

Podcast Radio

Yesterday, Robert MacMillan wrote on washingtonpost.com about a story from wired.com of Infinity Radio's plans for an "all podcast" radio station in San Francisco. Infinity will convert AM station from a talk radio format to one that plays "podcasts" content sent in on their web site. This is an interesting development, but is it positive? Will Infinity pay the podcsters for their content? Seems like Infinity will just be soaking up free content? What kind of model is this?

MacMillan says Bloomberg out'ed Viacom's declining ad revenues. If the station's ratings are already in the dirt, then they have nothing to loose with the new format. But will this appeal to listeners? Won't the "all talk" listeners jump ship to another station? What about new audiences? I don't think it will play well with people already listening to podcasts. A podcast radio station "undoes" some of the advantages of podcasting: the listener choosing the content, choosing which to listen to and at what time to listen, and not being encumbered by geographic proximity or reception range. In their new model, Viacom/Infinity will still pick the content and play it at a time of their own choosing -- just like the regular radio. So the question is whether podcasts will appeal to radio listeners at large....

An interesting move, but it seems to me like a shot in the dark.

Inaugural Post

This is the inaugural post of DEFMUSE. I intend to write about national defense -- in which I have some interest and experience, technology -- which I think I know something about, and want to know more, and other things -- such as coffee, cars, and caving. Ok, "caving" is more correctly called "spelunking" but I needed another "c" word. Truth be told, I really want to write less about defense, and more about the rest of the stuff. I just wanted to use the name "DefMuse." In this first posting, I'll touch on all three areas.

With so many amazing things going on in the word, where to start. I'll start with some news I read recently: a man named Troels Overdal Poulsen, from Denmark, won the 2005 World Barista Championships held recently in Seattle. The competition requires baristas to prepare for the four judges three drinks in 15 minutes: an espresso, a cappuccino, and a "signature" beverage. Poulsen's signature creation was something with lavender and pepper.

In other news, the Defense Department's Quadrennial Defense Review, or QDR, is well underway. There are a lot of people calling for a bigger Army. Some serious defense analysts --outside of government -- are calling for 100,000 more soldiers. You've got to wonder about that. For years Pentagon briefings have pondered the impact growing "entitlement programs," like social security and Medicare, will have on the defense budget. It's widely believed that the exponential growth in these expenditures will exert great pressure on the defense program (aka "defense spending"). More recently similar charts show the growing cost of "military entitlements" like Tricare and retirement benefits. Congressional action has extended benefits, like Tricare, to a greater portion of the nation's uniformed servicemembers and increased benefits to veterans. These "bills" within the defense program exert pressure on the Services' current operations & maintenance funds. These problems are compounded by increasing military end strength. In fact, the Air Force and Navy are voluntarily getting smaller, because they'd rather use their money modernizing equipment: its better to have fewer well equipped airmen or sailors than more of them with old stuff.

Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments published a report on military compensation. The defense budget is about $400 billion this year, not including supplemental costs of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. CSBA says that almost $139 billion, or 35% of this is for military compensation, compared with $70 billion for R&D, $79 billion for procurement of new equipment, with the remainder for operating funds & readiness. (Kosiak, p. 67) Further, the trend is toward greater per-servicemember expense. From 1987-2000, the military shed almost 800,000 active (-36%) and nearly 300,000 reserve (-25%) personnel. Yet today's compensation costs are nearly the same as the $140 billion they cost in 1987. (Kosiak, p. 65) The Kosiak report further suggests annual compensation costs will increase to as much as $207 billion by 2022, without increasing the size of the military force. (Kosiak, p. 69) This is largely due to in. Where will this funding come from? Transformation? Modernization and force transformation are clearly priorities of Mr. Rumsfeld. And the recent National Defense Strategy calls for adapting the military Services to better contend with irregular, disruptive, and catastrophic challenges. That doesn't sound like a strategy for spending less on R&D and procurement to me.

Finally, lets turn to technology. What is up with Verizon Wireless and the Treo 650? Are they ever going to get it? Rumors have been flying for some time, culminating in a teaser on Vzw's own web site. By all accounts, including first hand reports made directly to me, this is a great smart phone. These PC Magazine and CNet reviews seem pretty typical. But where is the phone on "America's Choice" network?

Am I the only one who is having trouble with the latest iPodder and iTunes? Ever since I installed iPodder 2.0 on my Thinkpad T30, I've suffered from iTunes lockups that seem to be related to iPodder checking for, or downloading podcasts. iPodder now seems to start up much more sluggishly than the previous version. That said, I really like the improved interface and features in version 2.

That wraps up this installment of DefMuse. Tune in again.